PREDICT: The Winds of Winter Publication

I think George just needs to find a happy medium. I wasn't around during the ADWD mess so I have no idea what that was like, but I can't imagine fans were very happy with him with constant delays and comments about how he expected to be finished by x date, only to still not have finished 3 years later. Now he's doing the other extreme in just not saying anything, which is pissing people off in different ways because now they don't think he cares or some even think he isn't even doing anything.

Maybe just once a month or so say something like "made some progress, I've written about 3 chapters" or "slow month, got a few chapters out but wasn't happy". Just very straight and factual without any promises or anything.

I think that's just your pessimism He has said he's working on it several times recently so he's definitely working on it.

True, but he also has a lot of pressure on his back. His publishers, HBO and the fans all want him to finish the books. That's too much for me to believe he just isn't working on it.

The question unfortunately is: At what rhythm ? I have followed this discussion for the last five years (because I signed out of aSoIaF between 2005 and 2010) and some IWC first-hour veterans can piece this together since...2006 or so. Almost in detail.
He says he needs very specific conditions to be able to concentrate, sit down and write...slowly. Most of the time, these conditions seem not to be met. He has to hammer out 1500 pages of a primary draft to be submitted to A. Groell. That primary draft, besides being written, may be rewritten (that was one of the problems with aDwD - he kept rewriting sections of the books for years). 
Nobody knows how much has been put on paper. Even if he is halfway or two-thirds done, highly unlikely he´ll wrap up the rest in the next 12 months. Worse - to get the book out in time for S6, he has to submit in 6 months latest for this to be publishable.
This is why it will NOT be released this year. He would have to submit about now - and we would hear about that. From the publishing house.

Unfortunately. Martin is highly dispersive, he explicitly admitted he loses interest in a story when he has to follow a specific outline to finish it off. His *exploits* on NAB show the same pattern: He dives into side projects which then seem to spawn other side projects. Not a good perspective.

You are right that there is more pressure now, because of the success of GoT. Maybe it´ll make him speed up. But the precedent is not very promising.

Classy and canned. He's said everything in that post before over the last decade or so almost verbatim -- except the part about age slowing him down a bit. Unlike his previous excuses for past delays, I sympathize with him this time around.

On to my lead-pipe lock for a release of TWOW. Spring 2016. By the end of this year, Martin's publisher is going to pry whatever Martin has managed to write from his WordStar, slap a huge "The Inspiration Behind HBO's Hit Series, A Game of Thrones" sticker on it and shove it out the door right before the series premier.

I think we just have to accept that we aren't getting the books and the ending of our beloved series will only arrive on show format.

We know he's not writing an episode for S6 and didn't for S5. This time next year, he should keep his calendar open and pen the series finale (and multiple episodes) to let him put his mark on the ending. I think that has a realistic chance.

His response to you was very classy. I know it's a variation of what he's said before. But honestly, before the show was green lighted they had to know that this issue was going to crop up. When the show debuted he was about 5 years past his last book in the series. This is not Outlander, which is on it's first season and the author has just released her 8th book and is planning to end it within the next book or two and seems to put out a new book every 2-3 years. Unless she has a major dry writing spell or the show ends in 4-5 seasons, there is no way that show will spoil her ending.
Actors on GoT have been saying in interviews as far back as season 3 that the show will finish before the books. I'll watch. And I'll still read because I know the show cannot give me the depth that GRRM gives in his story. So, while yes, I'd rather the ending come from him, I am okay with the show getting there first.

I almost want to say that you're avatar is a symbol for George's pace.

Hey all ...

I have been reading ASOIAF since the early 2000's and I can remember the long waits for AFFC and ADWD like yesterday (it was a hilarious time with the rise of detractordom). Unfortunately I think Martin was working harder then than now. I haven't lost complete hope but I do think it will be 2017 before we can read the next book. With enough money and hobbeys, there is just not enough motivation to finish the books.

anyway, there is always GOT! (just amazing how they cut the bloat of AFFC & ADWD -- it is not all good, but super better paced)