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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 5:45:58 GMT
Let's talk about Sansa's impending marriage to the demon spawn Ramsay Bolton! I'd prefer it not go into yet another debate as to whether or not they will show "that scene" because I'm pretty sure everyone's already debated that one to death and it's just too touchy a subject.
I'd prefer to talk about the political implications of Littlefinger's gamble as well as Roose Bolton's decision on whether or not this will work in their favor.
We have Roose's words to Ramsay at dinner "Stop eating and listen to me..." (hehe) about how the best way to win allies is marriage, not peeling the skin off your enemies. But this reasoning didn't sit well with me because Roose is a big fat murdering traitor and already proved he's willing to kill anyone, even his ally in cold blood. He was already an ally and supporting a marriage alliance between houses which a Frey/Stark (or Frey/Tully) marriage would have done. He's full of crap saying that to Ramsay!
Also there's this bit (I'm quoting myself from westoros.org discussion)
A lot of Littlefinger's reasoning in the move doesn't make sense either. Forget what he told Sansa out there on the hillside overlooking Moat Cailin - words are wind and he said all that 'avenge them' stuff just to work Sansa like he already knows how to do.
How exactly did people at the Eyrie know where Littlefinger went to forward that message that came from Cersei in King's Landing if he told them they were going to the Fingers? I also have to wonder if the Vale is going to support this move because then Roose Bolton can just call Littlefinger's bluff on that ... they aren't gonna come running to Winterfell to ally with the Boltons - they wouldn't even come out to help Robb Stark as the King in the North so LF is full of crap there no matter if he did marry Lysa he still has very little influence over the Lords of the Vale. I doubt Roose Bolton knows that so again - it's just a bluff hand to play.
Risky!
And I also think there's a tad bit of a loose end there that the only person who can give Sansa a royal pardon from her marriage to Tyrion is the king. We're not in the war of the 5 kings anymore, and Roose Bolton isn't like Robb Stark, declaring himself a king aside from the real throne so how does he expect Ramsay marrying Sansa to actually be taken seriously? He also knows the north hates him - so this is going to be interesting to see him pull off. Because of that and my previous remark, I don't actually think a wedding between Sansa and Ramsay is going to happen.
So these things are not adding up:
1. Roose thinking allying is about marrying a Stark after the entire North hates him for what he did to Robb Stark?
2. Littlefinger's move not raising any red flags with the Vale or if they don't know yet, how he expects to keep the Lords of the Vale in agreement after the fact?
3. Sansa's marriage to Ramsay isn't legit unless she's pardoned from her marriage to Tyrion and it doesn't matter whether it was consummated or not - or does it?
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Post by King Tommen on Apr 27, 2015 6:02:07 GMT
1. Roose himself (in the books and the show) marries Walda Frey to cement the alliance with the Frey's (as would have been Walder's request). So I think he definitely gets that aspect of power brokering. And he explicitly states in this episode that Sansa is a perfect asset to bring into his house because her presence will align the other Northern houses to him because of their loyalty to her. They want a Stark in Winterfell and Roose will give them that. It's almost the equivalent of taking on a ward/prisoner of your enemy (like Ned did with Theon) to keep them in line. Roose also knows that if Stannis does march on Winterfell, he's more likely to get Northern support to defend it with Sansa there and married into his family.
2. I imagine the "rider in the night" from the Vale is someone LF assigned to have all his messages redirected while he was gone in order to provide at least the temporary appearance of him still being somewhere in the Vale. The other Vale lords appear to be under the impression he's doing a bit of a goodwill tour in his carriage and probably haven't given it much more thought than that. I expect that both LF and Roose know that the Sansa jig will be up once the marriage occurs but they want to keep everything on the down low until then. As to what LF plans to do with the Vale lords after they know about this, I'm sure we'll hear more about this but he can always lean on the messaging that he's attempting to install Sansa back into her rightful spot as an institution of the North and its future heir.
3. The show seems pretty clear on saying a consummated marriage isn't an official one so even though technically, I think the books say that the High Septon has to rule on this, the show has never been overly specific so we should just go with it. The idea seems to be that Roose doesn't even care about whether it's legal or not because he just needs the North on his side, not the Crown and the North is going to recognize Sansa being installed in Winterfell. He doesn't think the Lannisters have the will or the force to do anything about it and he's now aligned with the Vale as well.
I'm sure there will be more that comes out eventually but I'm comfortable with the explanation. You could pick at pieces of it sure, but it's not ridiculous like some have claimed.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 6:12:05 GMT
No I do not think it's ridiculous at all and that's why I was willing to start a debate about it here because I tend to only really want to talk about plots I like and think could actually work.  I do have questions though and there seems to be some loose ends to tie up if it's going to work. But that's a big IF and with Stannis bearing down on them soon, (he did say he was leaving the wall within a fortnight) there's hardly going to be time to plan a proper wedding, no? I liked your responses and could see those being reasonable show explanations. 1. Roose marrying Walda Frey isn't quite the same as a scandalous or forced marriage to a Stark - one who is suspect of regicide by the Queen herself at that. I do agree the northerners want a Stark back in Winterfell but that's a pretty shaky platform to stand on for the Boltons and he's taking a really big gamble pushing that especially after the Red Wedding. How exciting! I loved the electricity flying between Roose and Littlefinger as they discussed this and walked along the Winterfell walkways as it was being rebuilt. 2. It occurred to me the rider was likely Littlefinger's personal messenger and not one of the Vale Lords. Littlefinger is cautious with his hired help and knowledge so that makes sense. Yes, the "jig is up" as you put it once the marriage is a done deal ... both the north and the vale will have no choice to accept it -- but still, it niggles at me that they'd both take such a big risk when all it would take from the crown is a letter nullifying the marriage and demanding Sansa's immediate return to King's Landing to stand trial for her participation in the murder of King Joffrey. Fortunately for us, we all know Cersei is about to get veeery busy so that probably won't happen, will it! 3. I'm willing to roll with it though I found it oddly creepy Littlefinger offered Roose to "check her if you must" to verify her virginity...ugh! I mean, wtf - did HE have her checked to make sure?! Nope nope, I'm NOT going there with this discussion! He's just such a creeper! |
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Post by King Tommen on Apr 27, 2015 6:27:44 GMT
Yeah, I took the "you can have her inspected" line to mean that Roose could have a Septon check her out since this seems to be the accepted method of confirming maidenhood at those times. Roose's dismissal of this requirement signaled to me that this was all the show was going to say about the legalities of Sansa marrying Ramsay since he doesn't care what the Crown says or does, it's the North that counts.
And remember that the North (because of its sheer size) is a unique part of Westeros. It can operate on its own and doesn't really need the Crown to prosper. Roose mentions that it's been thousands of years since an army has come to Winterfell from King's Landing. It's a "they need us more than we need them" situation so he's not overly worried about any reprisal or letters from Cersei as long as he's got the North united behind him. It's been shown that the only good way to control the North is to ally with them, typically through marriage. Robert and Ned were good friends so that worked out and even Tywin knew that the Boltons weren't going to be long term allies which is why he was so desperate to have Tyrion marry Sansa so they could produce an heir for Winterfell which would cement the North's alliance with the Crown.
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Post by day dreamer on Apr 27, 2015 15:44:39 GMT
That's a good point about the Vale rider. I didn't think of that.
Roose probably thinks marrying a Stark will erase all the animosity the other Northern lords had over what happened in the Twins. Although the more I think about this, the more I wonder why Roose doesn't try to just ally himself with Stannis instead. Maybe since he's at the Wall, he assumes Stannis would be on Jon's side? I don't know.
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Post by King Tommen on Apr 27, 2015 16:06:01 GMT
I think Roose (in the books and the show) realizes he's kind of fucked with Tywin gone. He knows he has to unite the North behind him but he'll never be able get their loyalty because of what he did with the Starks. Bringing in a Stark girl to bind with marriage is his only real play but obviously it's not going to make the rest of the North okay with him, just keep them in line temporarily. He knows it's just going to be a matter of time before they rise up against him which is already in the midst of happening in the books.
I think Roose knows that Stannis won't align with him because Stannis needs the North and realizes that Roose doesn't control the other houses. He's far better off (like at the Wall) being perceived as the guy who rides in to save the day and take out the Boltons so that he can solidify whoever the new leader of the North is behind his claim.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 16:21:54 GMT
Good points and I agree it's a desperate play by Roose Bolton at this point no matter how scary/sinister he plays it out with his demeanor. He's holding it together because he's a ruthless player and won't even blink an eye until the very end is my guess. His end has to be coming though - he doesn't have any allies left. I don't even think he's stupid enough to believe Littlefinger is an ally. In fact the more I thought on this debate, the more I think he fully realizes Littlefinger is full of shit but when a shit-talker offers you a perfect opportunity, you take advantage of it anyways and Sansa Stark is a deal too good to pass up.
I also think you're spot on about why he wouldn't try to ally with Stannis. Stannis probably wouldn't have any of it anyways because that's the way he rolls and after knowing what Roose did to the Starks, he's not going to have any of that man's bunkum. Stannis, for all the criticisms he gets, is one of the few true straight arrow characters even if he did let himself get corrupted by a Red Priestess. The fact she's so amazingly sexual (in the show) is the main point of that I guess rather than the actual religion. I never got the impression Stannis actually believed Mel's fanatical sermons much in the book but he went along with her for the power. Maybe I'm wrong on that. It was never one of my favorite twists because I always thought of Stannis as a true bull-headed (stag, sorry) Baratheon so it's always been odd he went with the religion angle.
So all that said, Stannis (to me) wouldn't want to ally with the Boltons but from a tactical standpoint it might have been worth a look since the Boltons do in fact have Winterfell. I have to remind myself that them occupying the castle doesn't mean they truly occupy the North, however. It's some small comfort and "The North remembers!"
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 16:23:11 GMT
Oh, Roose Bolton DOES have the Freys left as an ally I guess - since he married one. But as we know about Walder, that's not really a very strong bet.
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Post by King Tommen on Apr 27, 2015 16:39:12 GMT
Oh, Roose Bolton DOES have the Freys left as an ally I guess - since he married one. But as we know about Walder, that's not really a very strong bet. It's pretty tough but Roose found the only house in Westeros to ally with that is more hated than his own. He's in bed with the Frey's for better or worse but in the long run, that hurts his cause more than it helps. It's why LF offering him the backing of the Vale (whether it truly comes to fruition or not) is at least something he should grab hold of because the Vale (even with LF in charge) isn't generally thought of as a kingdom of sleazebuckets. Even though the show has sidelined the Frey's this season, I really love the imagery of the Boltons staking their claim with Walder Frey and Littlefinger riding shotgun. That is the most untrustworthy alliance ever conceived. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 16:56:06 GMT
It really is a very untrustworthy trio, isn't it! I love it. I think the more adept fans will pick this up and call the bluff - but unless you knew all the details from the books, it might not be that obvious right now. Plenty of people ranting and raving about this change to Sansa's storyline but one thing lurking the rants has taught me is where to find all the bits of detail I may have overlooked in pondering the possible outcomes. The chapter Mr. Martin released is an excellent example of "hints" and had to be done purposely to help quell some of the rabid fan freaking going on.
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Post by kingeomer on Apr 27, 2015 20:25:30 GMT
I'll be upfront in my admittance that I don't like this storyline...but tactic wise here are some possibilities I'm tossing around.
Roose Bolton: We already know via his conversation with Ramsey and the people Ramsey skinned that the Northern Lords don't accept Roose Bolton's authority or him as their Lord. So marrying Ramsey to Sansa, in his mind, is a hope to quell the North and hopefully get them in line. His hold on the North is very fragile and he also explained to Ramsey that they don't have enough men to defend themselves against a Northern Lord rebellion. I'm thinking that neither he or Littlefinger have given Stannis much thought, or Littlefinger has (and is neglecting to tell Bolton) and Roose has not even considered Stannis yet. And Stannis wants to be King over all and we all know Stannis's morality, Roose knows Stannis would do him in to win over the Northern Lords. It's better for Stannis to have all the Northern Lords over Roose Bolton. And Roose knows there is no help coming from the Iron Throne.
Littlefinger: I have no idea. Either he does want revenge for Catelyn and is trusting that what he hopes will happen actually does happen. The Northern Lords hearing about Ramsey marrying Sansa set their plan to in motion to rebel and save her ( just like in the book). Or he's playing both ends against the middle. He'll tell Cersei that isn't marrying into the family that aided in her family's downfall and murdered her brother punishment enough for Sansa and this marriage would keep things calm in the North and one less thing for Tommen to worry about except it's a powder keg ready to go off. He could weaken the North enough after they turn on Roose Bolton and he comes in to save the day and has an in with Sansa, that he will gain power in the North (already has the Vale).
Cersei: She wanted Sansa's head last season. I can't see her wanting Sansa to take another breath since she holds her as responsible for Joffrey's demise. I don't know that Cersei will find Sansa marrying into the Boltons punishment enough. But imagine on the show she will. Since in show verse the marriage has to consummated to be valid, obviously the marriage to Tyrion is no obstacle. Unless the High Septon rules otherwise?
Either way, the alliances here are very fragile and will break easily. Given how trustworthy Littlefinger, Bolton and Frey have proven to be (um, not at all)...this is going to get ugly, that is for sure.
One more point about Tywin marrying Sansa to Tyrion. It's that point that Tywin expected Robb Stark to be murdered in some fashion, so Sansa is the best way for him to control the North. I think the idea is to have Bolton be a placeholder until things were calmed down enough and than Tywin would dispose of Bolton and make way for Tyrion and Sansa. Tywin dying and Tyrion and Sansa not consummating the marriage ruined that plan.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 21:01:44 GMT
kingeomer : I appreciate your willingness to discuss the tactical advantages and disadvantages even if you disagree with the change of storyline. Along with what day dreamer said, you're probably right that Roose Bolton is hoping for the hatred to die down once a Stark is reinstalled back in Winterfell and his son will be better accepted as a Lord but with their combined reputations I don't think that's going to happen. The old lady's "The North Remembers!" was a definite nod to the book fans that their expectations will not be forgotten and that this move to make Sansa marry into the Boltons isn't going to be overlooked by the Northerners. I really do think that one line was a beacon of hope for Sansa and for those of us fans biting our nails to the quick with worry that Sansa is in actual real danger soon. You also mentioned Littlefinger having some sort of hidden agenda to repay Roose for killing Catelyn. He'll have to pay back the Freys too then because the betrayal could not have happened without their help. If Littlefinger does anything, it's going to be for revenge and to create more chaos in the realm so yeah - the alliance with Roose is not going to last by any means. Now it just remains to be seen if Stannis or someone else (Theon?) rescues Sansa from the situation she's now found herself in. While I do think she's become a lot more self sustained and less the victim, she's still very much in danger and will need help to get out of the situation she's in. A lot of fans hated that especially after they seemed to make her all a "player" at the end of last season (I personally didn't put a lot of stock in the vamp goth Sansa thing). Some seem to think she should be calling her own shots now but wasn't that what she did when she agreed to go onward to Winterfell? LF said she could back out and they'd turn the horses around and leave (he could be lying) but she steeled herself on that hill and decided to go through with it. Isn't that a new Sansa?
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Post by kingeomer on Apr 28, 2015 1:31:36 GMT
@envie, good point about Littlefinger needing to pay back the Freys for Catelyn's death as well. If that is his motivation, I'll be curious to see how the show has him go about it.
You are also right that Sansa has not only made the choice to proceed to Winterfell, knowing full well the family she'd be marrying into (but knowing nothing about Ramsey, which is scary) and choosing not to go with Brienne, is a Sansa who is making her own decisions--whether or not those decisions will be in her best interest or not in the long run, remains to be seen.
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Post by goodguygarlan on Apr 28, 2015 1:46:10 GMT
The thing is, that Roose had to make a choice: either to remain in the Lannisters' good graces (even though they're a sinking ship with Tywin dead) or to do his own thing and strengthen his hold over the North, even if it means marrying his heir to a fugitive from the Iron Throne
In the books he doesn't have this problem, obviously, but in the show he made the right call, I think. It's clear the Iron Throne won't lift a finger to help him, and just like they won't send troops to help him, they won't send troops to attack him, so he doesn't have much reason to fear them, even if they find out he's harboring a fugitive
So it's clear what Roose gets out of this. What's not so clear is what's in for Littlefinger, other than some nebulous alliance with the Boltons that would be worthless if Stannis wins
By the way, totally unrelated, but is anyone else getting "404 - not found" on Westeros.org?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2015 2:04:54 GMT
I have to think that LF's 'master plan' has to be selling out Roose to Stannis, using Sansa as the infiltrator to gather inside information AND/OR...from what we've just learned with the release of the episode synopses, 'Sansa meets an old friend.' Perhaps, in the show universe, Jeyne Poole has been working at Winterfell in some capacity whilst spying for LF and now knows pretty much everything there is to know about the Boltons' position re finances, troop strengths, etc. Its actually kind of fun, for me anyway, actually not knowing what's going to happen next! We're all Unsullied at this point, a bunch of virgin viewers, as it were.  |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2015 2:08:15 GMT
goodguygarlan - Perhaps it was Tywin's death that made Roose decide to abandon the Lannisters and go another route. I can't remember if a lot of Roose Bolton's motivations are talked about after Tywin's death in the books or not - but of course it would be all different since the Sansa twist has changed. He created the Fake Arya but now I cannot remember how or why he felt that was a beneficial tactic. Certainly changing her to the real Sansa is a fair bit more dramatic and game changing. I still think the show writers are fast forwarding to a point we'd have seen later anyways for Sansa. Not necessarily marrying Ramsay, but ending up back in Winterfell. I get the 404 messages constantly over on westeros.org right after a new episode airs. I don't think they have enough bandwidth for the amount of traffic they get and I'm surprised after all these years they haven't done something about that - it's always that way!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2015 2:15:40 GMT
I have to think that LF's 'master plan' has to be selling out Roose to Stannis, using Sansa as the infiltrator to gather inside information AND/OR...from what we've just learned with the release of the episode synopses, 'Sansa meets an old friend.' Perhaps, in the show universe, Jeyne Poole has been working at Winterfell in some capacity whilst spying for LF and now knows pretty much everything there is to know about the Boltons' position re finances, troop strengths, etc. Its actually kind of fun, for me anyway, actually not knowing what's going to happen next! We're all Unsullied at this point, a bunch of virgin viewers, as it were. Yes, I totally agree, it's great fun to be unsullied for once! I wasn't sure how I was going to feel about this point in the show where they would begin leaving the books behind but it's actually somewhat freeing in a way - no expectations anymore and I'm enjoying the show for it's own separate entity. I do have to think they're cooking up something between Littlefinger and Stannis since we know Stannis is headed that way soon and it puts Littlefinger in a somewhat 'neutral' but precarious position as Lord of the Eyrie. I can't figure out how Stannis would feel about Littlefinger to be honest. I know he will likely behead Roose Bolton, but Littlefinger as an ally? |
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Post by goodguygarlan on Apr 28, 2015 2:17:46 GMT
Yeah, fake Arya had the benefit of working in the interests of the IT (since Arya wasn't considered a traitor and kingslayer), but to go through with the Sansa thing, Roose has to be prepared to distance himself from the IT and become a traitor in the eyes of the Lannisters - well, in Cersei's eyes, because I doubt someone else might give a shit about Ramsay marrying Sansa; for all they know it could lead to a more unified North and a defeated Stannis, so everyone would be happy. The notion of a secret alliance between Bolton and Littlefinger could be more worrying, of course. That's the kind of things Tywin wanted to avoid by marrying Sansa to Tyrion in the first place.
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Post by Nezzer on Apr 28, 2015 23:04:27 GMT
Uploaded in June 2014. It's all this creep's fault |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2015 23:27:43 GMT
Hah! How the hells did that fan hit the nail on the head?! They have to be gloating about that now almost a year later!
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