PREDICT: The Winds of Winter Publication

I think he'll try, too. He's always said he has the best fans in the world and I think he will make his best effort to get it out by then. If he can't, then he can't, but I don't think it would be for lack of trying or for lack of caring.

Again, you are making far too much of this. I get riled up and rant about stuff all the time (politics, religions, books/TV/film, whatever) but that doesn't mean I don't work at the same time.

This is a great convo, how did I miss it before now?

My family are all literature nuts. I grew up in a public library as my Grandmother was lead librarian for 25 years. I have a professional author Uncle and he gave me some insight on how writers operate. Like artists, they often have highs and lows in their writing periods. Sometimes you're inspired, and sometimes you're not. However, he did say that when he's actively on the internet posting a lot, surfing facebook and blogs and writing small articles, that's actually when his brain is 'in the zone' so to speak and he's working. He says it helps him write to surf around the web until the right words for a particularly difficult paragraph or dialogue comes to him. I now know that when I see my uncle sending us email jokes and posting funny photos on his facebook page, he's actually in the middle of a writing binge...

So take that for what it's worth. I have no idea if Mr. Martin is the same way but it could be a clue that if he's posting a lot on his blog or ranting about seemingly off topic things (Hugo awards), he actually is AT his computer and writing quite actively. Remember, a post on a blog only takes 20-30 minutes to compose for a good writer who writes daily so seeing a lot of posts doesn't mean that's the only thing he's sitting there doing for 8 hours a day.

Also, almost all good authors I have read about their personal lives admit to having terrible insomnia (the brain doesn't like to shut off when it needs to while actively thinking/writing) - it also runs in my writing family! I would not be surprised at all if George does a lot of his real writing very late at night or very early in the wee hours of the morning and sleeps in between times which is also brain slug-mode when he surfs the net.

That's my completely unsolicited and unprofessional assessment of Mr. Martin's writing issues. I think his recent spout of internet activity means he's wrapping things up and actually on his computer a lot. He's not making appearances or traveling or whatnot so that's good news for concentration. Every time he goes on a trip, makes appearances etc. he is distracted and not in the zone.

As for the predictions, that's tough. I'm going to say sometime in the first quarter of 2016.

I think it's going to release after Season 6, so I'll say Q3 2016.

I imagine there will be a huge push from the publisher to get TWOW out before Season 6 airs.

With that said...fall of 2016 sounds about right.

I'm in the camp of people who thinks he could be done by the end of the year/early 2016. Just going by the fact that he obviously thinks it's possible that he could be done by November. Obviously likely and possible are not the same thing, but I gather that if he's confident in that being possible (and that he wanted the book finished last year) then he must be further along than most think.

But then, I wasn't around for the ADWD mess so who am I to talk?

Somewhat related, but here is GRRM tearing someone a new one for suggesting he has no fucks to give about TWOW:

He should have asked the fan how he was able to take time out from whatever job he or she does to a) read the books, and b) post idiotic comments on message boards. Surely they should be chained to a desk and working 24/7?

Early 2018 announcement, late 2018 release. That's my more optimistic estimate.